CHICAGO – August 30, 2004 – The low-carb trend is far from over, according to sales figures reported in IRI’s latest Times & Trends report – “Carb-Cutting Shoppers.” With reports of an estimated 26 million Americans on a low-carb diet today and some 70 million limiting their carb intake informally, the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and retail industry’s opportunity to serve these consumers with products that satisfy, but also support weight-loss goals, remains significant.
The latest in a series of ongoing studies on the Wellness Evolution and other noteworthy trends in the CPG and retail industries, “Carb-Cutting Shoppers” utilizes a variety of IRI information sources, including IRI’s InfoScan® Reviews and new CarbTracker™ Service to provide detailed analysis on low-carb trends in the most recent 52 weeks and most recent 12 weeks through mid-June.
The report reviews sales trends for three types of products that are appealing to consumers who are trying to reduce their carb intake: (1) naturally low-carb product categories, including “proteins” like eggs and meats, as well as “no/low/reduced sugar” categories like bottled water and diet soft drinks; (2) reduced-carb brands from specialty manufacturers like Atkins; and (3) reduced-carb brands from leading food/beverage manufacturers.
For the 52 weeks ending 6/13/04, sales of naturally low-carb product categories were up +5.8% versus a year ago, outpacing total food/beverage sales growth of +1.7%.
The low-carb brands segment has grown from non-existent to $1.1 billion in under two years and a 1% share of total food/beverage sales. This growth has been fueled by hundreds of new product introductions. IRI is now tracking sales of more than 80 low-carb brands. While the early players in low-carb – brand families like Atkins, Keto, and CarboRite, just to name a few – are still growing, (+181% versus a year ago), major manufacturers entered the arena full-force in the past six months, taking market share from the early entrants. Specifically, the brand extensions’ share of the segment rose from 44% to 57% in the past year.
Although consumers continue purchasing both naturally low-carb and the new carb-branded products, these categories are being used in different ways and for unique meal occasions. The naturally low-carb product growth of nearly 6% proved strongest in beverage, dinner and breakfast consumption products, while over three-fourths of the carb-branded activity growth, nearly 80%, was in snack meals and sweetened snacks and desserts.
According to the report, portable, between-meal snacks and beverages remain the largest carb-cutting battleground for carb-cutting CPG manufacturers. While soft drinks and beer, snack bars, candy, and other sweets are predicted to sustain consumer carb-cutting or calorie-cutting interests, lower-calorie or artificially-sweetened, diet versions have the potential to take over shoppers’ attention and taste satisfaction requirements.
Additional key findings from the report include:
- Retailers are evaluating low-carb stocking, merchandising and shopper communications strategies – Carb brands have received unusually strong display support and are often displayed in multiple locations with multiple carb brands. “Healthier Eating” sections are being tested within categories and as separate departments. Food ads are flagging a surge of new entries. The jury is still out on which strategies and which best practices consumers will respond to more than others.
- Taste approval, price/value, and weight-loss results are critical – Many carb-company products are premium priced compared to brand carb-extensions, which are more competitively priced. Taste and efficacy remain core to product adoption. Consumers will be the ultimate test.
- Concerned overweight shoppers are trying multiple diets – Data from IRI’s MedProfiler™ Service show that low-carb dieting is competing against low-fat/cholesterol, and low-calorie/sugar dieting for weight-loss results. Awareness and interest is heightened and continued media and government news may sway dieters in new directions.
- Could low-carb go the route of low-fat? – The low-fat branded craze in the early 90s experienced approximately five years of growth and then declined. However, consumers may sustain interest in selected naturally low-carb products as they did with naturally low-fat yogurts.
“This research provides a unique look into the low-carb phenomenon, while showing that manufacturers and retailers continue to have a major opportunity to serve the carb-conscious consumer,” said David Shanker, Division President, Client Solutions, IRI. “To be successful, it’s critical that CPG food and beverage companies and retailers continue working to fully understand the changing consumer dynamics. They must also continue collaborating on advertising, packaging, merchandising, and shelf presentation to provide shoppers with the information they need to make healthier choices and support new lifestyles.”
The complete Executive Summary of Times & Trends: Carb-Cutting Shoppers can be found in the Thought Leadership section within IRI's Public website.
About the Report
Times & Trends: Carb-Cutting Shoppers leverages information from a variety of unique IRI products and services, including InfoScan Reviews, the Consumer Network™ Household Panel, the MedProfiler Service, a Retailer Satisfaction & Shopping Attitudes Study, in-store information gathered by Mosaic InfoForce, and IRI’s new CarbTracker Service, a new syndicated offering designed for clients interested in tracking cross-category sales of products specifically targeted at low-carb dieters.
The report’s analysis compares “naturally low-carb” product trends to “carb-branded activity” – the combination of low-carb umbrella brands and low-carb branded extensions. What is or is not “naturally low-carb” can be subjective. This report included product types named in Atkins’ Carb Gram Counter, as well as advertised low-carb segments such as low-cal soft drinks and light beers. The Atkins dieter and carb-cutting shopper actually have a wide variety of items to choose from that are under 10 grams per serving. From its Website, Atkins lists 408 products, 274 of which are under 10 total carbs per serving. This report based its selection of “naturally low-carb” products on this list.
About Information Resources, Inc.
Information Resources, Inc. is a leading global provider of market content, analytic services and Business Performance Management (BPM) solutions to the CPG, retail and healthcare industries. IRI's clients include the leading CPG, retail, and healthcare companies in the world. IRI's market content and analytic services provide these companies with market and consumer insights. IRI's BPM solutions uniquely combine its breakthrough enterprise analytics software, market content and analytic models to provide a total view of the market and to enable maximum business performance across marketing, sales and operations. IRI's solutions enable the consumer-driven real-time CPG and retail enterprise. More information is available at www.infores.com.